মঙ্গলবার, ২৫ জুন, ২০১৩

Speaking too clearly can have a price for leaders

WASHINGTON (AP) ? For U.S. policy makers, events that seem at first like positive developments can sometimes unexpectedly bite back.

When federal budget deficits finally began to shrink in early spring as recovery from the Great Recession advanced, economic growth started inching down ? not up.

And when Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke suggested last week that continued economic gains might allow the central bank to begin withdrawing financial life supports "later this year" ? a statement that sounded like good news ? it triggered a multiday sell-off in the stock and bond markets.

It's not just economic policy. Foreign policy under President Barack Obama also hit a few recent snags.

While in Europe, Obama reached out to Russia to negotiate new reductions in nuclear arsenals of both countries ? and drew a quick rebuff from Moscow. Obama also welcomed a new initiative for peace talks with Afghanistan's Taliban militants. But Afghan President Hamid Karzai renounced the formula the next day and refused to participate in the talks.

"We had anticipated that at the outset, there were going to be some areas of friction, to put it mildly, in getting this thing off the ground," Obama said of the Taliban outreach.

The episodes serve as a reminder of how tricky negotiating both economic and foreign policy can be in a complex and interconnected world, rife with political challenges at home and overseas. And that in economics, diplomacy and politics, speaking too clearly sometimes has a price.

Obama has little room to maneuver domestically given harsh partisan divides in Congress. And there is scant appetite in either party ? or money in government coffers ? for expensive new fiscal initiatives to further spur growth and job creation.

The previous two Fed chairmen ? Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker ? often seemed deliberately obscure when discussing Fed strategy. It wasn't always clear what they meant, but their public comments rarely triggered huge market selloffs either. Bernanke has made a point of being transparent.

"We are determined to be as clear as we can," he said last week at one of his regular news conferences.

In a turbulent market, stocks reversed their downward course on Tuesday, rising modestly in midday trading on higher home prices and business orders.

Wayne Fields, an expert on political and presidential rhetoric at Washington University in St. Louis, said the issue of how candid to be and how much to disclose is a problem for presidents and Fed chairmen alike, one intensified by the recent debate over government secrecy and surveillance.

"Both foreign policy and domestic policy are interacting in really complicated ways around these issues, where things so quickly get out and where things so quickly get revealed," Fields said. "What should we allow government to keep quiet? What level of clarity and precision do we expect? All information is vulnerable and up for grabs."

Some of the improved deficit picture is due to rising tax revenues from recovery-driven corporate profit increases. But a lot also stems from tax hikes on wealthier Americans approved during "fiscal cliff" negotiations in late December and automatic "sequester" spending cuts that kicked in March 1.

The lower deficit sounds good, but it already has hurt fragile economic growth, private and government economists say. After the gross domestic product rose by 2.4 percent from January through March, GDP growth started slipping and is expected to be an anemic 1 percent to 2 percent in the current three-month quarter that ends June 30. The unemployment rate remains a high 7.6 percent a full four years after the Great Recession ended.

The Fed under Bernanke has kept interest rates super-low for five years and created roughly $3 trillion in new money for a bond-buying program intended to reignite business activity and keep mortgage and other long-term rates down. Now the Fed is seeking a gradual way to quit the money-printing business without endangering the recovery or awakening long-tame inflation.

While meant to be reassuring, Bernanke's words on ending the Fed's financial stimulus helped fuel concern among investors that the U.S. economy still was not strong enough to survive without the central bank's stimulus. That's what triggered the market selloff. Market turmoil, if it continues, could set back the recovery.

Obama's clout in Congress will lessen even further the closer he gets to lame-duck territory. And Bernanke seems something of a lame duck after Obama noted publicly last week that it may be time for the chairman to step down when his current term ends in January.

The former Princeton University economist "has already stayed a lot longer than he wanted or he was supposed to," Obama told TV interviewer Charlie Rose. Obama reappointed Bernanke for a second term as chairman in 2010. Bernanke seems to be quietly signaling that he's prepared to leave, but declines to discuss it publicly.

"I think what Bernanke wants to do is lay out a clear path to how to get it done (withdrawing the Fed stimulus) before he leaves," said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Analytics. "I don't think he's going to have enough time. But he'll want to lay out a clear road map for everybody."

As for the economy, "I think odds are it will get better," Zandi said. "But the script is still being written."

___

Follow Tom Raum on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/tomraum

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/speaking-too-clearly-price-leaders-071755001.html

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মঙ্গলবার, ১১ জুন, ২০১৩

Mandela remains in serious condition, gov't says

JOHANNESBURG (AP) ? Former South African President Nelson Mandela remained in serious but stable condition during his fourth day in the hospital Tuesday for a recurring lung infection, while school children sang outside the 94-year-old icon's home, expressing hope the former president would recover.

A government statement said President Jacob Zuma was briefed by Mandela's doctors late Monday and is satisfied they are doing all they can to improve his health. The statement gave no additional details as to how Mandela is fairing other than to describe his condition as serious but stable.

Mandela, the leader of South Africa's anti-apartheid movement, spent 27 years in prison during white racist rule. He was freed in 1990, and then embarked on peacemaking efforts during the tense transition that saw the demise of the apartheid system and his own election as South Africa's first black president in 1994.

His admission to a hospital in Pretoria, the capital, is Mandela's fourth time being admitted to a hospital for treatment since December. His last discharge came April 6 after doctors diagnosed him with pneumonia and drained fluid from his lung area.

Two of Mandela's children visited the Johannesburg hospital he is believed to be staying in Tuesday. In what could be a sign of the seriousness of his condition, one of them was Zenani Mandela, South Africa's ambassador to Argentina, the South African Press Association reported.

At Johannesburg's Apartheid Museum on Tuesday, visitors walked through an exhibit showcasing the life of Mandela amid a feeling in the country that this hospitalization may be more serious than previous ones.

"All these admissions to the hospital has been preparing us for this, that this may be the end, and that is enough to tell us this is very serious," said Father Victor Phalana of Cathedral of the Sacred Heart in Pretoria, who was touring the museum with two Catholic priests from Uganda.

Outside Mandela's Johannesburg home, school children from the Rainbow Hill Christian School sang words of encouragement. "We love you Mandela ... get well, get well," they sang.

Lebogang Serite, a 12-year-old student at the school, said she "couldn't be in a white people's school" had it not been for Mandela's anti-apartheid efforts. "He means a lot to me because he fought for the country. I couldn't be in a white people's school," she said.

"I know that if he was able to speak, he was going to play with them today. Unfortunately, wherever he is, he's not well, but I know that he worked very, very hard for us. That's why we are here," said Mama Zodwa, a 57-year-old teacher from the school.

On Monday a foundation led by retired archbishop Desmond Tutu described Mandela as an "extraordinary gift" and offered prayers for his comfort and dignity. The Desmond and Leah Tutu Legacy Foundation described Mandela as "the beloved father of our nation."

Mandela is seen by many around the world as a symbol of reconciliation because of his peacemaking role when white racist rule ended in South Africa. Tutu, 81, was also vigorous campaigner against apartheid, which ended when all-race elections were held in 1994 and Mandela president.

Like Mandela, Tutu was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts on behalf of his compatriots. Mandela shared his prize in 1993 with F.W. de Klerk, the last president of the apartheid era.

In its brief statement on Mandela's health, the presidency said Zuma "reiterates his call for South Africa to pray for Madiba and the family during this time," referring to Mandela by his clan name.

Mandela has been particularly vulnerable to respiratory problems since contracting tuberculosis during 27 years as the prisoner of the white racist government. The bulk of that period was spent on Robben Island, off the coast of Cape Town where Mandela and other prisoners spent part of the time toiling in a stone quarry.

He was freed in 1990, and then embarked on peacemaking efforts during the tense transition that saw the demise of the apartheid system and his own election as president in 1994.

The former leader retired from public life years ago and had received medical care at his Johannesburg home until his latest transfer to a hospital.

___

Associated Press Television News reporter Bongani Mthethwa and Associated Press reporter Wandoo Makurdi in Johannesburg contributed to this report.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/mandela-remains-serious-condition-govt-says-123854804.html

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